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General Electric: Signaling Economic Turmoil

The Dow Jones Industrial Average originally consisted of 12 companies. 

 Of those original companies back in 1896, only General Electric remains, and during the most recent recessionary periods it has proven reliably representative of trend. 

 During the collapse of the dot-com bubble, General Electric fell from roughly $60 per share in September of 2000 to nearly $20 per share in February of 2003, a whole 66-percent decline over 29 months. 

 Over the ensuing 55 months, General Electric shares would rebound over the 40-dollar level, only to tumble all the way down to $7 per share by March of 2009, as the world experienced the greatest financial meltdown since the Great Depression. 

 Since that low, General Electric has endured to again eclipse the $30-per-share mark, closing at $32.88 on July 15, 2016. 

 Since then, however, the stock has resumed its seemingly-secular downward trajectory to close at $17.45 per share at the end of 2017, completing a full 47-percent decline just before the new year. 

 With the lauded "January Effect" looming large, many investors and commentators recommend an allocation toward General Electric to take advantage of the historical trend. 

 However, the technical movements of stocks are rendered predictable only by their estimations against relatively normal, predictable conditions. 

 Should this downward movement instead indicate a broader trend for the greater economy, this may in fact portend something far more serious than any opportunity to buy the dip. 

 If immediate history is any indicator, a major economic recession is upon us.

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